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Tesla faces first-ever year-over-year sales decline

Tesla's sales fell year over year in 2024, marking the first decline in its history, as competition and ageing models challenged the EV giant.

Tesla has released its production and delivery numbers for 2024, and the results are a significant shift for the electric vehicle (EV) leader. Teslaโ€™s sales have fallen for the first time compared to the previous year, highlighting new challenges for the company.

A year of decline in production and deliveries

Tesla produced 1.77 million vehicles in 2024, a 4% drop from 2023. Meanwhile, deliveries stood at 1.79 million vehicles, representing a decline of 1% year over year. The company also deployed 31.4 GWh of energy storage products over the year, demonstrating growth in its energy division despite challenges in vehicle sales.

While the yearly numbers are down, Tesla reported a โ€œrecordโ€ fourth quarter. In the last three months of 2024, the company delivered 495,570 vehicles and deployed 11 GWh of energy storage productsโ€”quarterly highs. During the same period, it produced 459,445 cars, predominantly its popular Model 3 and Model Y units.

Despite the strong finish, the yearly performance fell short of Wall Streetโ€™s expectations. According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, analysts had predicted 504,800 vehicle deliveries for Q4. Teslaโ€™s stock reacted to the news, dropping by approximately 5% as investors processed the underwhelming results.

Competition and an ageing lineup impact performance

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had warned earlier this year that the company would face significant hurdles in 2024. The key concerns were increased competition, particularly from established manufacturers entering the EV market, and a dip in demand for Teslaโ€™s ageing vehicle lineup.

Although Teslaโ€™s much-anticipated Cybertruck began deliveries in late 2023, its success wasnโ€™t enough to boost its overall performance. Tesla continues to rely heavily on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, but newer competitors and more innovative designs from rivals have eaten into its market share.

Chinaโ€™s growing EV market poses another significant challenge. Teslaโ€™s most prominent international market rapidly expands from domestic companies such as BYD, steadily gaining ground. Teslaโ€™s market share in the region continues to decline, raising questions about its ability to remain competitive globally.

Future outlook under changing policies

Tesla faces an uncertain landscape as Donald Trump prepares to return to the presidency. Policy changes under the new administration could further impact the EV industry. Notably, the anticipated removal of the $7,500 federal tax credit for new EV purchases could make Teslaโ€™s vehicles less accessible to consumers.

Musk has promised a more affordable Tesla model for 2025 and a fully autonomous โ€œCybercabโ€ for 2026. However, these projects have significant challenges, including cost reductions and technological hurdles. As the EV market evolves, Teslaโ€™s ability to adapt will be critical.

The companyโ€™s future also hinges on maintaining its innovative edge. With competition heating up and external pressures mounting, Teslaโ€™s ability to stay ahead will determine whether it can reclaim its momentum in future years.

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